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Sunday, December 27, 2015

Early Oscar Favorites: Best Picture and Director

The 88th Annual Academy Awards are not until Sunday, February 28th, but the awards season leading up to it is already in full swing. Many critics groups and other organizations have already bestowed their awards or announced their nominations, with the Oscar nominations announced on Thursday, January 14th.

Here is my very early list of Oscar predictions in some of the main categories. I will provide updated predictions as we get closer to the time of the nominations on the 14th. One site I rely on for help is http://www.goldderby.com/, which summarizes predictions and odds from numerous industry experts and critics. Keep in mind, this is less about my personal opinions of the films and what I think will be nominated.

I'll start with Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Picture

2014 had 8 nominees for Best Picture, the fewest number of films in this category since expanding the category in 2009. I believe there will be more nominees this year, at least 9 or 10.

At this point, it's  primarily a race between three films at this point: "Spotlight," "The Revenant" and "The Martian," though anything could happen between now and then.

"The Big Short" has gained considerable momentum in recent weeks, as well as "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" though that changed with the recent announcement of the Producers Guild Awards, a strong predictor for Best Picture; the PGA included "Ex Machina," "Sicario" and "Straight Outta Compton," the latter of which has also been surging in recent weeks; this list however also excluded favorites "Carol" and "Room," which hurts their chances. The Academy is usually good for a surprise or two, on that note I still expect "Carol" to be included here. Here is my revised list as of January 6, 2016.


"Spotlight"
"The Revenant"
"The Martian"
"Carol"
"Mad Max: Fury Road"
"Brooklyn"
"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Straight Outta Compton"


Don't count out:


"Room"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Ex Machina" (received PGA nomination)
"Inside Out"
"Steve Jobs"
"The Danish Girl"
"Sicario" (received PGA nomination)


Personally, I think "Mad Max" is a good but vastly overrated film and doesn't belong here; many critics went crazy over it (but not me) and it's directed by the great George Miller, an Oscar winner for Best Animated film in 2006 for "Happy Feet." Likewise, the same for "Bridge of Spies," a solid film but not worthy to be included here but directed by Spielberg, an Academy darling in recent years.

Best Director

Ridley Scott is the favorite here for his exhilarating comeback with my favorite film of the year, "The Martian," though he has competition with the likely Best Picture winner, Tom McCarthy of "Spotlight," and last year's winner, Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, for the brilliant "The Revenant." Speaking of which, "The Revenant" is a better film than his Oscar-winning "Birdman," which is unfortunate, since it's unlikely he'll win again. These three are for sure, with the final slots likely going to Todd Haynes for the lovely "Carol" and George Miller for "Mad Max," though this category can be very unpredictable, given their penchant to nominate smaller films (like "Foxcatcher" or "Beasts of the Southern Wild").

These three are certain nominees:
Ridley Scott, "The Martian"
Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight"
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, "The Revenant"

and likely these two:
Todd Haynes, "Carol"
George Miller, "Mad Max: Fury Road"

Don't count these out:
Danny Boyle, "Steve Jobs"
Tom Hooper, "The Danish Girl"
Lenny Abrahamson, "Room"
Steven Spielberg, "Bridge of Spies"
J.J. Abrams, "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"

If anyone upsets with a nomination, it'll be Abrahamson for the well-received, superbly-acted "Room," which I believe is a worthier nomination than the others listed here, with the exception of Boyle, though "Steve Jobs" has lost considerable ground with middling box-office since its release. I anticipate only a Best Actor and Screenplay noms for that film.

Early Oscar Favorites: Best Supporting Actor and Actress

Here's Best Supporting Actor and Actress.

Best Supporting Actor

At this point, there are two or possibly three names that can count on nominations, and they are Oscar-winner and Academy favorite Christian Bale for his stellar turn in the finance drama "The Big Short," Mark Rylance for his scene-stealing turn in "Bridge of Spies" and Idris Elba for his brutal turn in the drama "Beasts of No Nation." From there, it could be a number of people, including Michael Shannon in the critical favorite "99 Homes," Jacob Tremblay in "Room," Paul Dano in "Love and Mercy," Tom Hardy in "The Revenant," Sylvester Stallone in "Creed" and a pair from "Spotlight," Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton, both of whom were nominated last year. Stallone is gaining sentimental support for his winning turn as Rocky Balboa in "Creed" while Shannon received both Globe and SAG noms for his turn, and for now, I'm going with those for the final two slots.

For sure:
Christian Bale, "The Big Short"
Mark Rylance, "Bridge of Spies"
Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation"

And likely:
Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"
Michael Shannon, "99 Homes"


Best Supporting Actress

The two names you will for sure hear as nominees in this category are Alicia Vikander for "The Danish Girl" and Rooney Mara for "Carol," though it doesn't come without some controversy. They're both being promoted in this category, though both are clearly lead performances, with their studios feeling they have better chances in this category. It happens regularly - J.K. Simmons won Supporting Actor last year for what was a lead performance in "Whiplash" (and likewise Kate Winslet won Best Actress in 2008 for a supporting turn in "The Reader") - so it's not a surprise it's happening again, though the Globes put both ladies in the lead category, where they rightfully belong, but don't expect the Academy to follow.

There are two other certain nominees in this category, (ironically) Kate Winslet for her stellar turn in "Steve Jobs" and Jennifer Jason Leigh, stealing scenes in Tarantino's overlong Western "The Hateful Eight." The final slot could be a number of ladies: Jane Fonda for her minutes-long, hammy turn in "Youth," Helen Mirren as Hollywood legend Hedda Hopper in "Trumbo," Joan Allen in "Room," Rachel McAdams in "Spotlight" or Vikander again in "Ex Machina" (she's had a great year, appearing in several films). I'm going with Fonda or Mirren, with an ever-so-slight edge to Fonda, though I'd rather see Mirren or McAdams personally.

For sure:
Rooney Mara, "Carol"
Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"
Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"

With the final slot likely going to:
Jane Fonda, "Youth"

Early Oscar Favorites: Best Actor and Best Actress

Here's Best Actor and Best Actress.

Best Actor

This one is by far the easiest category this year, with Leonardo DiCaprio's name all over it this year, and while I'm personally not a huge fan, he's deserving of this one for his all-out, down-and-dirty method turn in the brilliant "The Revenant." I'd be surprised if he doesn't win. His biggest competition comes from Michael Fassbender's great performance as the iconic Apple CEO in "Steve Jobs" and last year's winner, Eddie Redmayne, as a real-life transgender pioneer in "The Danish Girl."

There are three for sure, and they are:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

Also a likely nominee is:
Matt Damon, "The Martian"

The last slot is up for grabs, and will likely go to:
Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo"

Possible nominees may include:
Johnny Depp, "Black Mass"
Will Smith, "Concussion"
Michael Caine, "Youth"

Though the Academy loves Caine, "Youth" is a fine but little-seen drama about aging, while Smith's "Concussion" is losing ground to mixed reviews. That last slot will be either Cranston or Depp, and for now I'm going with Cranston, who's received both Golden Globe and SAG nominations.

Best Actress

Unlike Best Actor, Best Actress is a more difficult category this year given many fine female performances this year, and it'll be mixed with newcomers, past winners and veterans with first-time nominations. There are also performances that blur the line between lead and supporting, given that both Alicia Vikander for "The Danish Girl" and Rooney Mara for "Carol" are both lead performances but will likely be pushed for supporting turns (the Golden Globes didn't see it that way and nominated both ladies as leads).

Brie Larson for the excellent "Room," previous Oscar-winner Cate Blanchett for the groundbreaking "Carol" and Saiorse Ronan for the tender drama "Brooklyn" are all in. From there, it will get interesting. Veteran Charlotte Rampling is gaining support for the fine drama "45 Years," and I could easily see her receiving her first nomination. As for the last slot, it could go to a number of different people, including comedian Sarah Silverman, for her surprising SAG-nominated performance in the little-seen drama "I Smile Back," Academy darling Jennifer Lawrence in "Joy," which is receiving mixed reviews, Carey Mulligan in the little-seen drama "Suffragette," Oscar-winner Helen Mirren for her SAG-nominated turn in "Woman in Gold" and Golden Globe nominees Lily Tomlin for "Grandma" (which I would love) or Maggie Smith in "The Lady in the Van," which opens wide in January. Of these, I'm going with Lawrence or Mirren, if nothing else for name-recognition.

Certain nominees are:
Brie Larson, "Room"
Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
Saiorse Ronan, "Brooklyn"

Likely:
Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"

with the final slot going to:
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Wes's Year End List for 2015 - Part I: The Best Films

Admittedly, I always approach the end of the year with a little fear and trepidation. After seeing over 200 movies, you begin to wonder, now what did I see? And with so many movies thrown at critics at year end, it become a bit of a frenzy with awards season upon us. 2015 was a solid year for film with some stellar offerings at the end of the year. Last year at this time, it was already shaping up a two-way race between "Boyhood" and the eventual winner, "Birdman" but at this point, it can go anyway. "The Revenant," "Spotlight" and "The Martian" (along with others) all have a strong case to make it go their way.

After reviewing my reviews, here is my best and worst for 2015. I list my top film for the year, followed by the complete top 10 (in no order), honorable mention and the 5 worst films of the year. This first part is the year's best. Part II, in a separate blog post, will cover the worst films of the year.

My favorite film of the year is (drumroll please):

The Martian
This brilliant, breathtaking space film is the year's best and smartest science fiction film and a terrific return to form for director Ridley Scott, who is long overdue for a Best Director Oscar. Based on Andy Weir's excellent 2011 novel, the fascinating, engaging story is about an astronaut (Matt Damon, who grounds the film well) in the near future stuck on Mars and finding his way home. Part survival and part action, it did what last year's "Interstellar" failed to do: make science-fiction both believable and thrilling. If you haven't seen this compelling, often exhilarating movie, make your plans to do so now.

Here's the rest of my top 10:

The Revenant - Director Alejandro González Iñárritu, who won the Best Director and Picture in 2014 for "Birdman," does it again, really outdoing himself. The dark, character-driven epic Western is brutal and bloody and in many a better film than his thought-provoking "Birdman" and features the year's single most electrifying scene, a startling gruesome bear attack (not rape as you may have heard). Leonardo Di Caprio, in full method actor mode, is certain to win the Oscar, and while I'm not necessarily among his biggest fans, he's overdue for the award, give it to him and get it over with, please. If there's one film you have to see year-end, it's this one and it will be up for Best Picture, Director and Actor Oscars for sure.

Son of Saul - This unique, affecting and harrowing Hungarian film about one man's (Hungarian poet Géza Röhrig) survival in a World War II concentration camp and his quest to bury his deceased son will haunt you and stay with you long after you leave the theater. Expanding nationwide in January, this film is brilliantly directed by Lazlo Nemes in a very auspicious debut as feature film director (not to mention Rohrig's acting debut). The opening scene, featuring a long tracking shot following the main character into the camp, is startlingly unforgettable, not to mention the rest of the film, including the heartbreaking finale. A shoo-in for this year's Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. My full review of "Son of Saul" will be posted closer to the film's opening in January.

Brooklyn -  One of the year's most tender, well-acted films, this sweet love story is exquisitely acted by "Atonement's" Sairose Ronan in the lead role in her most mature role to date. Based on Colm Toibin's novel of the same name, it's about an Irish girl who immigrates to 1950s New York City in search of a new life and finds the true meaning of love and family. "Brooklyn" is filled with many compelling, sensitive moments that reminds of classics like "A Tree Grows in Brooklyn."

Spotlight - One of the year's most powerful, relevant films. Directed and written by "The Visitor's" Tom McCarthy, this fact-based drama is about corruption and abuse in the Catholic church in Boston, is also superbly acted by a strong ensemble cast including Michael Keaton, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel McAdams and Liev Schreiber. It certainly has the qualities of a Best Picture winner, but with middling box-office, we'll see how much momentum it has going into the awards season. Still, an excellent film reminding of the power of another shocking investigation, "All the President's Men."

Room - Based on Emma Donoghue's best-selling novel of the same name, this low-budget independent film directed by "Frank's" Lenny Abrahamson is likely the year's most powerful, superbly acted and often heartbreaking film. About a young mother and her son held hostage, it's part survival, part escape and part adjustment to a new world. As the young mother and her young son, Brie Larson and especially 10-year old Jacob Tremblay give brilliant, moving performances that will garner some attention. Put this one on your list to see.

Beasts of No Nation - This brutal, harrowing tale of a young boy survival a bloody civil war in his native African homeland is one of the year's most powerful, but also difficult to watch. Newcomer Abraham Attah is wonderful, as is Idris Elba as his brutal commandant and father figure, and it's no surprise he's already garnering awards notice (SAGs and Golden Globes) and expect much more. It's still streaming on Netflix if you didn't catch its brief theatrical run.

Steve Jobs - One of the year's most fascinating, superbly acted bio drama's, about Apple founder Jobs, it's unfortunate that director Danny Boyle's and writer Aaron Sorkin's fine film didn't find much of an audience at the box office. This gem features a finely tuned, pitch-perfect performance from Michael Fassbender, who looks nothing like Jobs but remarkably captures his spirit, as well as a solid supporting turn from Oscar-winner Kate Winslet as his trusted assistant. Sorkin's mesmerizing dialogue keeps this flowing, and mid-film it has one of the year's most exhilarating scenes, a back-and-forth debate between Fassbender's Jobs and one of Apple's CEO, played by Jeff Daniels.

Inside Out - Pixar strikes again in one of its most inventive and colorful animated films yet, about the inner emotions that drive us all. Richly voiced by Amy Poehler, Bill Hader, Mindy Kaling, Phyllis Smith and Lewis Black, you'll experience the gamut of emotions in this wholly original, funny and pensive film from the creative Dream Team at Pixar. It's a shoo-in for the Best Animated Oscar, but it's not too late to catch on DVD before the Oscars.

The Big Short - This dramedy is one of the year's most mesmerizing, powerful looks at the financial collapse of 2008, as told by the people who saw it coming and were able to legally profit from it. Smartly directed by the unlikely Adam McKay (Will Ferrell's frequent collaborator and former "SNL" writer) and featuring a strong ensemble cast, including Steve Carrell and Christian Bale, who could easily see Oscar-nominations for it as well as Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt. Pertinent, colorful and quickly paced, it's definitely worth your time.

A few more to mention:
Carol, It Follows, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Black Mass, Sicario, Mad Max: Fury Road, Amy, Love & Mercy, Ex Machina, The Danish Girl, Cartel Land, 45 Years, Straight Outta Compton, Creed, Trainwreck, Bridge of Spies, He Named Me Malala.

Carol -B+

Rooney Mara and Cate Blanchett
Rated R, 118 minutes

Love often knows no boundaries of time and space. That is the subject of the superbly acted, affecting new Todd Haynes romantic drama "Carol" that tells the love story of two women. Haynes, who tread similar ground in the Julianne Moore in 2002's "Far From Heaven," does a lovely job evoking the look and feel of 1950's New York City, in which the film is set. Therese Belivet (Rooney Mara) spots the beautiful, elegant Carol (Cate Blanchett) perusing the doll displays in a 1950s Manhattan department store. The two women develop a fast bond that becomes a love with complicated consequences. Directed by Haynes and written by playwright Phyllis Nagy and based on Patricia Highsmith's groundbreaking 1952 novel "The Price of Salt," "Carol" is a groundbreaking film: an emotionally satisfying, slow-moving and compelling portrait of a shopgirl (Mara) who becomes involved with the older housewife (Blanchett) who is caught in a divorce and custody battle over her daughter. The rich performances from both Mara and Blanchett become the highlight of the excellent "Carol," with added texture in the first-rate production design, costumes from Oscar-winner Sandy Powell (who'll likely be nominated again for this), handsome photography from Edward Lachman and the moving score by Carter Burwell. Considering the subject matter, don't expect it'll be tawdry, preachy or oversentimental, but a complex love story between two women handled with remarkable restraint and subtly, and these two have everything to lose: Carol has a child with her husband ("Friday Night Lights" Kyle Chandler) and Therese a burgeoning photographer. Haynes let the story unfold nicely and naturally and doesn't feel forced, though you have an idea of the heartbreak that will come for these ladies, who must choose between love and their existing commitments. Blanchett and Mara are sublimely convincing and engaging, and yes there is a mildly steamy love scene that's otherwise well-handled by Haynes. "Carol" is quietly powerful and moving and worthy of your time for the excellent turns by its leads, who should see many awards coming their way.

Wes's Year End List for 2015 - Part II: The Worst Films

Now comes the fun part, and a list that's generally easier to compose than the "best of" list. There were lots of mediocre films this year, and many others that were simply terrible. Some of these were popular films, and some of these you may have seen and enjoyed, but it wasn't a pleasant experience for this critic. And since Tyler Perry didn't have a film out this year, he didn't make the list. I will list my 5 worst films followed a few on the dishonorable mention list.

Here they are, my 5 worst films for this year (in no particular order).

Fantastic Four - This superhero film was as bad as you've heard, and then some. This was plagued with problems from the beginning, and though director Josh Trank is largely responsible, 20th Century Fox did no help by intervening, actually making the film worse. The bland film is slow and devoid of action or personality, and the film is too loaded with backstory that holds little relevance to the current story. This crash-and-burn film lost a ton of money, yet somehow Fox initially moved forward with a sequel, though now that seems highly unlikely.

War Room - OK, I know I'll get flack from my Christian friends over this. Don't get me wrong. I am a Christian. I believe in God, go to church regularly and pray, but this faith-based film did Christian filmmaking no favors. In spite of its good message, this third-rate film was a shoddy production, terribly acted and awfully preachy. I hate to be critical of Christian films due to their message and the fact they must have difficulty in funding, but in good conscience I just can't recommend this, and it still seems to be preaching to the choir. In spite of all this, it was still a huge hit and a big moneymaker for its producers, so (groan), expect more of these. I keep telling myself these films will get better, but I'm losing faith in this brand of movies, which proves that Christians have grace even when it comes to terrible movies.

Tomorrowland -Another big-budgeted summer flop that went South quickly and lost a whole bunch of money for its studio Disney. In spite of a good director and writer, Brad Bird, and a charming star, George Clooney, this utterly dumb sci-fi film made little sense from start to finish, and a save-the-planet ending that wants you to hold hands and hug a tree. Bafflingly inane, at least it had some terrific trailers, which had little to do with what was actually in the movie.

Pan - This awful big-budgeted Peter Pan origin story and reimagination flopped badly, underscoring what a sucky year that its studio Warner Bros. has had ("The Man from U.N.C.L.E.," "Jupiter Ascending" and "Hot Pursuit" among its many other flops this year). It didn't help that this baffling, confusing and silly movie, directed by Joe Wright ("Atonement") and starring Hugh Jackman in one of the strangest pirate getups I've ever seen (not to mention singing Nirvana), also had two of the worst cases of miscasting, with the bland Garrett Hedlund as Hook and caucasian Rooney Mara as Tiger Lily - can you say whitewash?

Fifty Shades of Grey - Unsurprisingly, this bland, tame and badly assembled, rushed production (based on E.L. James tawdry, terribly written novels), was a big hit way back in February, mainly for those who showed up in its first week to see what this was all about. They quickly discovered it was all hype and really a crashing bore. Directed by Sam Taylor-Johnson in lackluster fashion and with zero chemistry from its stars, Dakota Johnson and Jamie Dornan, it watered down the S&M so much the climax was just plain laughable. Expect sequels, but really, what a big waste of time.

Here's a few more:
Jupiter Ascending, Mortdecai, Hot Tub Time Machine 2, Seventh Son, Get Hard, The Wedding Ringer, Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2, Little Boy, Hitman: Agent 47, Pixels, Stonewall, Jem and the Holograms, Our Brand is Crisis, Rock the Kasbah, Love the Coopers, Hot Pursuit.

The Revenant - A-

Rated R, 156 minutes

The remarkable, brutal and brilliant "The Revenant" is one of the year's most intense films and a must-see. Directed and written by last year's Oscar-winner for director Alejandro G. Iñárritu and based on Michael Penke's nonfiction novel of the same name, "The Revenant" is loosely inspired by real events and characters and perfectly captures the brutality and survival of the fittest, with a heavy dose revenge and redemption. If you saw Iñárritu's "Birdman" last year you know what a unique experience that was; "The Revenant" is a better film on many levels and should wow those interested in the technical side of filmmaking. In an expedition of the uncharted American wilderness, legendary explorer Hugh Glass (Leonardo DiCaprio) is brutally attacked by a bear and left for dead by members of his own hunting team. In a quest to survive, Glass endures unimaginable grief as well as the betrayal of his confidant John Fitzgerald (Tom Hardy). Guided by sheer will and the love of his family, Glass must navigate a vicious winter in a relentless pursuit to live and find redemption. The satisfying, entertaining "The Revenant," in all its brutality, isn't a film for everyone, the violent, bloody bear attack early in the film is considerably difficult to endure, but you won't look away, either and is a worthwhile experience in the end that will stay with you after you leave the theater. It also helps that the movie is a technical achievement, with Oscar-winner Emmanuel Lubezki's breathtaking, gritty photography the real highlight and could give him his third Oscar in a row after winning for 2013's "Gravity" and Iñárritu's own "Birdman" last year. The revenge narrative is well-worn, and its mid-section could've been trimmed down some, but Iñárritu and company draw you in and don't let you go until the bloody, final showdown between two of cinema's foremost method actors, DiCaprio and Hardy, both of whom are shoo-ins for Oscar nominations. Speaking of DiCaprio, and truthfully speaking I'm not his biggest fan - yes, this turn seems as shameless as Anne Hathaway's "Les Miserable" grab for the golden guy - but it's also an admittedly memorable one that should catapult him to Oscar glory; by the time he hops into a gutted horse to stay warm during a brutal winter, you're thinking this guy will do anything to get that Oscar. I say it to him and go on.  Awards aside, "The Revenant" is a worthwhile, superbly acted film you should make time for this winter.