Early Oscar Favorites: Best Picture and Director

The 88th Annual Academy Awards are not until Sunday, February 28th, but the awards season leading up to it is already in full swing. Many critics groups and other organizations have already bestowed their awards or announced their nominations, with the Oscar nominations announced on Thursday, January 14th.

Here is my very early list of Oscar predictions in some of the main categories. I will provide updated predictions as we get closer to the time of the nominations on the 14th. One site I rely on for help is http://www.goldderby.com/, which summarizes predictions and odds from numerous industry experts and critics. Keep in mind, this is less about my personal opinions of the films and what I think will be nominated.

I'll start with Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Picture

2014 had 8 nominees for Best Picture, the fewest number of films in this category since expanding the category in 2009. I believe there will be more nominees this year, at least 9 or 10.

At this point, it's  primarily a race between three films at this point: "Spotlight," "The Revenant" and "The Martian," though anything could happen between now and then.

"The Big Short" has gained considerable momentum in recent weeks, as well as "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" though that changed with the recent announcement of the Producers Guild Awards, a strong predictor for Best Picture; the PGA included "Ex Machina," "Sicario" and "Straight Outta Compton," the latter of which has also been surging in recent weeks; this list however also excluded favorites "Carol" and "Room," which hurts their chances. The Academy is usually good for a surprise or two, on that note I still expect "Carol" to be included here. Here is my revised list as of January 6, 2016.


"Spotlight"
"The Revenant"
"The Martian"
"Carol"
"Mad Max: Fury Road"
"Brooklyn"
"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Straight Outta Compton"


Don't count out:


"Room"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Ex Machina" (received PGA nomination)
"Inside Out"
"Steve Jobs"
"The Danish Girl"
"Sicario" (received PGA nomination)


Personally, I think "Mad Max" is a good but vastly overrated film and doesn't belong here; many critics went crazy over it (but not me) and it's directed by the great George Miller, an Oscar winner for Best Animated film in 2006 for "Happy Feet." Likewise, the same for "Bridge of Spies," a solid film but not worthy to be included here but directed by Spielberg, an Academy darling in recent years.

Best Director

Ridley Scott is the favorite here for his exhilarating comeback with my favorite film of the year, "The Martian," though he has competition with the likely Best Picture winner, Tom McCarthy of "Spotlight," and last year's winner, Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, for the brilliant "The Revenant." Speaking of which, "The Revenant" is a better film than his Oscar-winning "Birdman," which is unfortunate, since it's unlikely he'll win again. These three are for sure, with the final slots likely going to Todd Haynes for the lovely "Carol" and George Miller for "Mad Max," though this category can be very unpredictable, given their penchant to nominate smaller films (like "Foxcatcher" or "Beasts of the Southern Wild").

These three are certain nominees:
Ridley Scott, "The Martian"
Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight"
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, "The Revenant"

and likely these two:
Todd Haynes, "Carol"
George Miller, "Mad Max: Fury Road"

Don't count these out:
Danny Boyle, "Steve Jobs"
Tom Hooper, "The Danish Girl"
Lenny Abrahamson, "Room"
Steven Spielberg, "Bridge of Spies"
J.J. Abrams, "Star Wars: The Force Awakens"

If anyone upsets with a nomination, it'll be Abrahamson for the well-received, superbly-acted "Room," which I believe is a worthier nomination than the others listed here, with the exception of Boyle, though "Steve Jobs" has lost considerable ground with middling box-office since its release. I anticipate only a Best Actor and Screenplay noms for that film.