The official Oscar nominations will be released on Thursday morning, January 14th. Here are my latest predictions in the top categories. Based on some major awards winners and nominations, these could go a number of different ways, but this is what I'm going with for now.
Best Picture:
"Spotlight"
"The Revenant"
"The Martian"
"Carol"
"Mad Max: Fury Road"
"Brooklyn"
"The Big Short"
"Bridge of Spies"
"Straight Outta Compton"
Don't rule out:
"Room"
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens"
"Ex Machina"
"Inside Out"
"Steve Jobs"
"The Danish Girl"
"Sicario"
I'm going with 9 films at the moment, with both "The Big Short" and "Straight Outta Compton" picking up steam lately. "Room," a superb, affecting film, is worthy of the last slot, though it has lost considerable momentum in recent weeks, with its best chances at earning Best Actress and Best Screenplay noms. Either "Sicario" or "Ex Machina," both of which earned Producers Guild noms recently, could also sneak in with a 10th slot, but it'd be a surprise if they did.
Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu, "The Revenant"
Tom McCarthy, "Spotlight"
Ridley Scott, "The Martian"
George Miller, "Mad Max: Fury Road"
Adam McKay, "The Big Short"
Don't rule out:
Todd Haynes, "Carol"
Danny Boyle, "Steve Jobs"
Lenny Abrahamson, "Room"
Steven Spielberg, "Bridge of Spies"
Haynes, whose "Carol" is expected to get a lot of noms, could very well be the final slot, but I'm going with McKay, who has gained momentum with a Director's Guild nomination just this week.
Best Actress:
Brie Larson, "Room"
Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
Jennifer Lawrence, "Joy"
Saiorse Ronan, "Brooklyn"
Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"
Don't rule out:
Helen Mirren, "The Woman in Gold"
Carey Mulligan, "Suffragette"
Lily Tomlin, "Grandma"
Charlize Theron, "Mad Max: Fury Road"
At least 4 of the actresses above: Larson, Blanchett, Ronan and Lawrence, all seem to be easily in, with the final slot most likely going to Rampling for the acclaimed but little-seen, superbly acted indie drama "45 Years." Tomlin or Theron could also make the cut and I certainly wouldn't mind either of them, but they're both dark horses at this point.
Best Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant"
Matt Damon, "The Martian"
Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"
Michael Fassbender, "Steve Jobs"
Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo"
Don't rule out:
Johnny Depp, "Black Mass"
Will Smith, "Concussion"
Michael Caine, "Youth"
In what will be the easiest category of the awards season, it seems to be finding 4 other guys to go along with DiCaprio, who's almost certain to take home the big prize this time. Damon, Redmayne and Fassbender all are easily in as well, with the final slot most likely going to SAG and Globe-nominated Cranston, though SAG-nominated Depp is still a strong possibility.
Best Supporting Actress:
Rooney Mara, "Carol"
Alicia Vikander, "The Danish Girl"
Kate Winslet, "Steve Jobs"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"
Helen Mirren, "Trumbo"
Don't rule out:
Jane Fonda, "Youth"
Alicia Vikander, "Ex Machina"
Rachel McAdams, "Spotlight"
Joan Allen, "Room"
Elizabeth Banks, "Love & Mercy"
The supporting categories tend to provide the most surprises, though this year that will probably be in the supporting actor category. This category lends itself to category fraud this year given that Mara and Vikander, two shoo-ins for nominations, both really belong in the lead category. Outside of Mara and Vikander, Winslet is also a sure thing, and Jason Leigh has been surging as of late. The final slot will go to a veteran, either Mirren or Fonda, though I wouldn't rule out SAG-nominated McAdams.
Best Supporting Actor:
Sylvester Stallone, "Creed"
Mark Rylance, "The Bridge of Spies"
Christian Bale, "The Big Short"
Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation"
Mark Ruffalo, "Spotlight"
Don't rule out:
Michael Keaton, "Spotlight"
Michael Shannon, "99 Homes"
Paul Dano, "Love & Mercy"
Benicio Del Toro, "Sicario"
Tom Hardy, "The Revenant"
Jacob Tremblay, "Room"
The Best Supporting Actor category will probably itself with at least 1 or 2 surprises this year, given the wide array of performances this year. The sure things: Stallone, a sentimental favorite and Globe winner, Rylance, and SAG and Globe-nominated Elba. The final two slots will likely go to Academy favorite Bale for the surging "The Big Short" and for Ruffalo, for "Spotlight." The surprises could be numerous given this category has been a little all over the place this awards season, so it wouldn't surprise me if any of the other listed gentlemen in my "Don't rule out" list above sneak in at the last minute.
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